James_September-October_2026_web - Flipbook - Page 68
over Collins who was not running
television ads in late August although a political action committee
sponsored ads ran criticizing Ossoff
for voting against tax cuts. However, The (Republican) Senate Leadership Fund is reported to have
earmarked $60 million for Collins.
Given Georgia’s significance,
come fall we will see a wealth of
polls. If Ossoff is leading in a poll,
concentrate on his support and not
the difference between him and
Collins. An incumbent polling below 50 percent is vulnerable even
when leading by more than the
margin of error. In 2002, Sonny Perdue never led then-Gov. Roy Barnes
in the polls, but the incumbent
failed to poll consistently above 50
percent and lost.
In Georgia where the parties
are so closely matched, the enthusiasm gap may be decisive. Surveys
show Democrats may be more
interested in the elections this year
and more likely to show up to vote.
68
Turnout in the July primary where
150,000 more Democratic than GOP
ballots were cast is another indication that the enthusiasm gap favors
Democrats.
Since this is a midterm, Trump
is not on the ballot and that is bad
news for Republicans since some
GOP voters turn out only if Trump
is running. At times Trump acts
as if he has no dog in the fight.
But— again, as this is written— it is
reported that he will come to Georgia to rally for the GOP ticket before
early voting begins.
Down Ballot Races
The media coverage and advertising will focus almost exclusively
on the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests, largely ignoring the
seven executive offices including
lieutenant governor, secretary of
state, attorney general and labor
commissioner along with two
Public Service Commission seats
on the ballot. Candidates for these
JAMES SEPTE M B E R/O C TO BE R 2 0 2 6
offices will struggle to have a
presence on television and even if
they manage to place advertising,
their efforts will be overwhelmed
by the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on the two high profile
contests. Most Georgians will vote
their party when choosing candidates for these low-visibility offices.
Even though four of our state’s
U.S. congressional districts do not
have incumbents, gerrymandering has rendered each of these
non-competitive. The General Assembly is where Republicans will
likely lose some marginal districts.
But even if Democrats make gains,
it is unlikely that they can win either legislative chamber. But if GOP
margins narrow, Democrats may
have more opportunities to influence legislation going forward.
Charles S. Bullock, III, is the Distinguished
University Professor of Public and International Affairs. He is co-author of The Three
Governors Controversy, a study of the unique
1946 gubernatorial selection process.
