James_September-October_2026_web - Flipbook - Page 66
JACKSON
BOTTOMS
whom vote Republican, will be a
majority of those who cast ballots
this November since the minority
population tends to be younger
and whites turn out at higher rates
than other groups.
For years, Georgia has been a
30-30 state. These figures indicate
the threshold at which partisan
success in statewide contests turns.
Democratic candidates who get
30 percent of the white vote win if
blacks cast 30 percent of all votes
and about 90 percent of those voters
go Democratic. Republicans need
more than 70 percent of the white
vote or for Black turnout to be low.
Georgia’s growing minority
population is affecting GOP strategy. Jackson is making high-profile
campaign stops at black and Hispanic owned businesses. Just as
Democrats don’t need a majority of
the white vote to win, Republicans
don’t need the bulk of a minority
group’s vote to win. For example, in
2020 Trump got 11 percent of the
black vote. If he had received 12
percent of the black vote, he would
have won Georgia.
66
JAMES SEPTE M B E R/O C TO BE R 2 0 2 6
Party ties have become stronger
meaning that most partisans will
back their party’s nominee without
question. Who are the relatively few
voters who are up for grabs and will
determine winners? In 2022, these
split ticket voters were referred to
as Brian Kemp-Raphael Warnock
voters. These voters largely identify
as Republicans, but they hesitate to
vote for Trump or candidates closely
identified with him. Herschel Walker
and former Senators David Perdue
and Kelly Loeffler emphasized their
loyalty to Trump and lost. In 2022,
the Republicans who experienced
the largest increases in their vote
shares over what they received in
2018 were Brad Raffensperger and
Kemp. Neither Kemp nor Raffensperger is on the Mar-a-Lago priority guest list. So these past results
explain why Democrats are running
television ads showing Jackson and
Collins enthusiastically pledging
their commitment to Trump.
