James_September-October_2026_web - Flipbook - Page 65
ampaigns don’t usually shift into
high gear until Labor Day, but by
late August gubernatorial opponents Keisha Lance Bottoms and
Rick Jackson, along with incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff and
challenger U.S Rep. Mike Collins,
began airing television ads and
a super PAC associated with U.S. Senate Republicans
was attacking Ossoff. Early ads suggest that leading
issues will be affordability, taxes, healthcare and Iran,
along with critiques of previous actions taken by the
candidates and their voting records.
Jackson initially bought $87 million worth of ad
slots and while no other candidate will match that purchase, television advertising and social media appeals
will intensify. In time, our mailboxes and emails will be
filed with fliers. Eager volunteers may come knocking
on our door. Polls will shift from registered voters to likely voters and become more numerous. Aren’t you glad
that you live in a toss-up state?
If you are certain who will win, you can register
your insight on Kalshi. My crystal ball cracked, so rather
than trying to divine the winners I’m left pondering the
context of this year’s elections.
Across the nation, it is almost certain that Republicans will lose some seats. This is not because they are
Republicans but because a Republican occupies the
White House. Since the Civil War, in only three midterms
has the president’s party increased its share of U.S.
House seats. Midterm elections are like the progress reports kids bring home from school. Many voters unhappy
with current conditions can’t vote against the president
so they register their displeasure by voting against members of the president’s party or they just don’t vote.
The two factors that have the greatest bearing on
the fortunes of the president’s party are his popularity
and the state of the economy.
The Racial Vote Factor
Except for a few high-profile elections, Georgia
has remained more Republican red than Democrat
blue. But Georgia’s population is changing. Since 2010
the state’s population has increased by 1.6 million.
Minorities account for all of that growth transforming
Georgia into a majority-minority state with whites the
plurality group. Georgia is one-third black, 12 percent
Hispanic and about 5 percent Asian. Whites, most of
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