James_Sept-Oct_2025_web - Flipbook - Page 79
eaders of James
are unlike the
average Georgian on several
dimensions,
one of which
is that they are
already thinking about next year’s
elections. Candidates have come
forward, some with millions of
dollars in hand. More names will
be added.
The 2026 round will be spiced
with far more excitement than in
2022 because of numerous open
seats. High incumbent reelection
rates discourage quality challengers. Open seats often draw crowds.
Among our constitutional offices
the positions of governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general
and probably secretary of state will
be open. Gov. Brian Kemp appointed Bárbara Rivera Holmes labor
commissioner, but she has not
faced the electorate and that could
attract competition.
Republicans continue to have a
slight edge in Georgia although U.S.
Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have demonstrated that under
the right conditions Democrats can
win statewide. Incumbency gives
Ossoff a boost, but Republicans
will hope to at least replicate their
2022 successes when they won all
statewide contests except for Warnock’s Senate seat.
While Republicans will be
favored to retain the constitutional
offices, they are less secure than
in recent years. Under what conditions might Democrats score a
breakthrough that has eluded them
during this century? Revelation of
a scandal involving a Republican
nominee could prove fatal.
A flawed candidate or a poorly executed campaign can easily
create a situation to be exploited
by the opposition as the Herschel
Walker campaign demonstrated.
Then there are conditions under
which candidates have no control.
The president’s party pays a price
for a slumping economy or inflation
as witnessed in 2024. Even when
conditions are good, the president’s
party almost always loses ground
in a midterm election.
As the majority party, the GOP
can expect more primary competition. Multiple viable candidates
have announced for governor,
lieutenant governor, attorney
general and senator. Candidates in
crowded primary fields often play
nice hoping to make it into a runoff
and then get endorsements from
candidates eliminated in the first
round of voting. In a mano-a-mano
runoff with everything on the line,
attacks become more numerous
and personal. In the worst-case
scenario for a party, bitterness persists after the runoff with the losing
candidate’s supporters voting for
the opposition or sitting out the
general election. Failure to reunite
a majority can open the door for
minority party success. Some readers will recall the 1980 U.S. Senate
Democratic Party runoff in which
incumbent Herman Talmadge held
off Lt. Gov. Zell Miller but limped
into the general election where
the unknown and under-financed
Republican Mack Mattingly scored
a shocking upset.
A massive question mark hanging over GOP primaries is whether
President Donald Trump will make
endorsements and, if he does, what
will be the impact? Would a nod
from Trump be as potent as his
backing of Kemp in 2018 and new
U.S. Rep. Brian Jack in 2024? Or
might it be like 2022 when Trump’s
endorsements had little impact
as Kemp thrashed GOP primary
opponent David Perdue. Atty. Gen.
Chris Carr, Secretary of State Brad
Raffensperger and Insurance Commissioner John King also easily
disposed of Trumpian candidates
leaving now Lt. Gov. Burt Jones
S E PT E M B E R /O C TO BER 2025
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