James January-February 2025 web - Flipbook - Page 51
FOR THE THIRD presidential cycle in
a row InsiderAdvantage, our national
polling division, was among the most
accurate pollsters in the nation. We
were very accurate in battleground
states like Georgia, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina
and Nevada.
We weren’t alone. Other firms such
as Trafalgar, Atlas Intel, Emerson, and
Rasmussen also had low error rates
and were the correct winners in most
of those contests. Also, the University
of Georgia polling unit performed well
again in their Atlanta Journal-Constitution polls of the race in the state.
Those so-called “quality pollsters” for the major national news
organizations, in general, once again
missed their mark. They struggle in
presidential cycles, finding it hard to
get what we call “shy Trump voters”
to answer their long questionnaires
which sometimes take more than 20
minutes to answer.
But all pollsters who poll the battlegrounds deserve credit for taking
the race on in the last month of the
contest. As I always say, polling is like
throwing a dart across a football field
and having to hit the bullseye each
time. Not an easy thing to do.
With a long years’ worth of polling
now completed and the race over, here
is why Trump defeated Harris:
harvesting became more difficult to
do in states like Georgia. Republicans
were lousy at dealing with pandemic
politics and elections.
1. Many states, over and done with
pandemic politics, did not flood their
states with mail in ballots. Ballot
5. Harris chose the worst possible running-mate. Had she chosen
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, that
2. Republicans became good at finding
“low propensity voters” such as young
men who increasingly lean Republican
and then turning them out to vote.
3. National Democrats, including Kamela Harris, chose to cling to celebrity
endorsements and late-night talk shows
to deliver their message. And, in Harris’s case, there was no clear message.
The race boiled down to mainly female
college educated whites, supported by
a dwindling number of African-American and Hispanic voters as part of past
winning coalitions, versus everyone
else. Both black and Hispanic voters
have started to shift in the GOP’s direction— primarily African-American men
but both male and female Hispanics.
4. Not much was going right for the
country. While the economy appeared
to be improving, inflation had taken
such a bite out of working peoples’
budgets that they could not feel any
turnaround. And the Biden administration had projected a weak and timid
image in dealing with virtually every
crisis, from Afghanistan to that Chinese
spy balloon that just kept on floating.
state might have remained blue and
that could have freed up resources
for other close battleground contests.
But Tim Walz proved to be sort of
a pretend “man’s man” whose gun
wouldn’t load. A “football coach” who
obviously thought a “pick six” was an
actual play you run rather than an interception you run back for six points.
His silly gestures on stage at rallies
sealed the deal.
6. The various legal cases against
Doanld Trump and his allies made
Trump look like the target of unfair
electioneering. The more they piled
up; the more skeptical swing voters
became. Voters just decided to nullify
them in their minds.
7. National Democratic policies became more of a testing ground for
far-out concepts taught at elite universities, which managed to lose their
luster as well. The obsession with
gender politics, along with Diversity,
Equity and Inclusion (DEI), offended
the majority of Americans
8. The “pay no attention to that
man behind the curtains” attitude
displayed by the White House just
became too much to accept. “The border is secure”… “President Biden is at
the top of his game”… “Vice President
Harris was never in charge of the border”…. At some point anyone but the
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